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Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Air Max 720 Sale . -- San Francisco 49ers offensive co-ordinator Greg Roman is a finalist to replace Joe Paterno at Penn State, his agent said Monday. Cheap Air Max 720 . He looked very comfortable Wednesday night. Konerko had a big three-run double and Gordon Beckham homered for the second straight game, leading the Chicago White Sox to an 8-3 victory over the sliding Chicago Cubs. http://www.cheapairmax720ireland.com/ . More importantly, he is trying to show his young teammates the Colorado are still post-season contenders. He hopes winning a series at home was a fresh start. Air Max 720 New . Trailing 4-1 in the final set, Sharapova steadied her erratic service game and took command again to beat the 56th-ranked American 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 on clay at the Magic Box tennis centre. The ninth-ranked Russian looked to be cruising before McHale broke late in the second set to tie the match and then took her commanding lead in the final set after breaking Sharapova. Air Max 720 Wholesale . -- Ben Bishop had a milestone game against one of the NHLs greatest goalies.TORONTO - Sam Carrick scored the winner in the 10th round of the shootout as the Toronto Marlies edged the Texas Stars 3-2 Sunday in American Hockey League action. Carrick pulled Stars starter Christopher Nilstorp out of position with a deke and beat him stick side for the winner. Korbinian Holzer and Jamie Devane scored in regulation for the Marlies (8-6-1), who have won back-to-back contests. Maxime Fortunus and Justin Dowling scored for the Stars (9-5-3). Torontos Drew MacIntyre made 19 saves through 65 minutes and eight more in the shootout for the victory while Nilstorp stopped 28 shots for Texas. Marlies forward Jerry DAmigo was assessed a penalty for goaltender interference in overtime, but the Stars were unable to capitalize with the man advantage. Spencer Abbott had the best scoring chances of the third period. With just under two minutes remaining, the Toronto forward beat Nilstorp, but hit the post. Then with 53 seconds remaining, off a scrambled face-off, Abbotts shot got behind Nilstorp again. The play was reviewed, but ruled the puck did not cross the goal line. Holzer tied it 2-2 at 13:48 of the second period, putting home the rebound off a Josh Leivo backhander.dddddddddddd Holzer had an excellent chance to give the Toronto its first lead of the game, on a power play, with 40 seconds remaining in the second as he split the Stars defence, but the blue liner could not beat Nilstorp five-hole. Texas held a 2-1 lead after 20 minutes. Dowling opened the scoring at 2:21 of the opening period, beating MacIntyre glove side for his first of the season. Toronto tied it 1-1 at 10:47 when new-comer Brad Staubitz setup Devane in front for his first of the season. Sunday marked Staubitzs first game with the Marlies after he was acquired Saturday by the Maple Leafs along with Peter Holland from the Anaheim Ducks for Jesse Blacker and a conditional third-round pick in 2014. Fortunus made it 2-1, on a power play, with less than a minute remaining in the first when his point shot beat a screened MacIntyre for his second of the season. Notes: The Dallas Stars reassigned defenceman Aaron Rome to Texas prior to Sundays game after claiming blue liner Dustin Jeffrey off waivers from Pittsburgh. Troy Bodie was assigned to the Marlies Sunday after clearing waivers. 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